BARRETT SOARS WITH VERY CONSERVATIVE VOTERS, LEADING BY SEVEN OVER THE REST OF THE PACK, AS HFA TWO-WEEK INVESTMENT PAYS OFF
Compare the 322 tracking surveys completed Tuesday to Friday last week with the 330 from two weeks prior, before HFA’s $150,000 Independent Expenditure started.
| LIKELY GOP PRIMARY VOTERS | Late August Poll | Mid-September Poll | Two Week Change |
| Barrett | 5.5% | 11.2% | 5.7% |
| Van Epps | 3.6% | 4.7% | 1.1% |
| Reeves | 4.9% | 3.4% | -1.5% |
| Bulso | 4.3% | 3.0% | -1.3% |
| Parks | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Others | 1.6% | 0.0% | -1.6% |
| Undecided | 79.4% | 77.0% | -2.4% |
Now look at the numbers with VERY conservative voters (57% of the electorate).
| VERY CONSERVATIVE LIKELY VOTERS | Late August Poll | Mid-September Poll | Two Week Change |
| Barrett | 4.5% | 15.6% | 11.1% |
| Van Epps | 4.5% | 5.0% | 0.5% |
| Reeves | 6.0% | 4.4% | -1.6% |
| Bulso | 4.5% | 2.2% | -2.3% |
| Parks | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Others | 1.0% | 0.0% | -1.0% |
| Undecided | 78.5% | 71.1% | -7.4% |
Barrett’s Name ID surged from 6-1 favorable (39% ID) to 19-3 with 70% ID and is 26-2 (77% ID) with very conservative voters. Despite both Reeves and Bulso each spending six-figures plus, their numbers remain stagnant. Van Epps’s ad barrage over the last two days boosted his favorables slightly, sending him into a distant second over the fading Reeves and Bulso.
The anti-Barrett ad barrage makes this race a binary choice: Jody Barrett, or someone else. Right now Van Epps, Reeves and Bulso are competing to be the “someone else.”
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